Saudi-Iranian dogfight for regional hegemony | Scoping Pakistan's options.

Saudi-Iranian dogfight for regional hegemony | Scoping Pakistan's options.

29|August|2013

'The people of the Persian Gulf region will have to resolve their differences like a truly independent people unwrapped by the prejudices left behind by colonialism. Pakistan must keep a vigilant eye on such potential trouble spots; for circumstances could place her on 'the horns of a dilemma'. She must work for the 'reduction of tensions' and make what contributions she can towards shaping peaceful co-existence among fraternal Islamic states.' 

 Prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto | 'The myth of independence'  | 1969

'Introduction'


'The History has a bad habit of repeating itself, they say' and those nations who disremember history are 'doomed to fail'. Both of these statements have proved to be right and have echoed throughout the age of human civilisation. The 'quest for power' and 'establishing hegemony' by all means and materials over fellow human beings, has been the purport of man throughout time.

Informed and vibrant nations, are always the ones who keep a close watch on the history. They consistently upgrade and upskill their communal ability to make strategic decisions in the light of the past. Future they say, is just a mere 'reflection of the past' after all. Those who undermine the importance of this process, lag behind and ultimately fade away as 'irrelevant nations', in the fog of history. 

Today, Pakistan finds itself on a crossroads of foreign policy, as a 'vicious dogfight' for regional hegemony has unfolded between the 'team Gulf Cooperation Council' , headed by the 'aspiring regional hegemon' Saudi Arabia and the 'team Iran' and its allies, headed by the 'aspiring regional hegemon' Iran. Unfortunately, this 'middle eastern cold war' , is not being directly contended on the soils of either country, but is being fought in the neighboring nations, with no regard to their stability or the loss of human life.

Syria,Iraq,Bahrain,Egypt,Pakistan,Afghanistan and Yemen are the countries where this 'dogfight' is revealing itself. This is where the people of those countries are paying with their lives, Honor, money and property, 'without' knowing the real culprit behind their misery. Thousands of innocent men,women and children have been killed in Syria, Egypt,Yemen,Iraq,Afghanistan and Pakistan over the past decade through 'petrodollar funded' campaigns of 'multi axis subversion' in those nations.

This doesn't seem to bother the both 'contending teams' however, as its not their citizens being raped and pillaged, nor it is their infrastructure and state institutions which are being destroyed and its certainly not their state organs facing multiple stages of administrative and operational failures. This essay will, look into 'how these two teams conduct acts of subversion, in Pakistan and in other countries, and how Pakistan can tailor its strategic vision to 'survive the day'.

'Team Iran's strategy & goals'

Iran, by all means is an important regional power with big ambitions of its own. Iran wants to become the 'hegemon of the Persian gulf region' by all means possible. Ever since the 'holy revolution' took place in Iran in 1979, it has actively been trying to 'export the revolution' to other neighboring Muslim countries by all legal and illegal means possible. The goal of Iran is to become a 'regional powerhouse', which derives its power by creating 'Shia proxies' in its neighboring Muslim countries which are funded by Iranian 'petrodollars'. 

Historically since the 1979, wherever Iran has tried to 'export the revolution', it has also tried to create a 'fifth column' of brainwashed, religiously indoctrinated terrorist outfits, usually made out of the young gullible Shia youth of the host countries. They are lead to believe that 'since their are fighting for the Mahdi,therefore their loyalties transcend their national identity'. 

In the reality though it is a tactic to create armed terrorist groups in other Muslim countries, who believe themselves to be 'fighting for a religious cause'. In reality though, they are nothing but a bunch of mercenaries at the disposal of the Iranian state for strategic power projection in the region. Example of these outfits can be found, in the Iraqi 'Mahdi Army', Lebanon's Hizbullah , Yemeni Huti rebels , Syrian 'Shabiha'  and Pakistan's 'Sipah-e-Muhammad' as well as the 'Tehreek-e-Nifaz-e- Fiqa Jafriya Pakistan' to name a few.

Since 1979 Iran has used these 'petrodollar funded useful idiots', with absolute impunity, with no regard for the host nation's integrity,sovereignty or geopolitical stability. Iran has been vigorously supporting the Syrian tyrant, Bashar-al-Asad, even going as far as to sending its 'uniformed soldiers' into Syria and inviting its 'proxy' Hizb-Ullah from Lebanon to combat the Free Syrian Army. It has also, supported the Houthi rebels in Yemen who infiltrated into Saudi Arabia forcing the Kingdom to take a military action to lodge them out. 

Its support for Mahdi Army to project power in Iraq is perhaps the worst kept secret. Iran, hopes to continue its subversive activities since it has the means and material to do so. Iran thinks, that it can become a great power by installing and maintaining pro-Iran govts in Iraq, Syria, Bahrain,Lebanon and Egypt. Once that objective is attained, it will further its 'incursion' into Saudi Arabia,UAE,Qatar,Kuwait and Jordan by using their internal strife as a tool for manipulation. If successful it will make Iran the 'undisputed hegemony  of the region. How 'realistic & robust' this strategy really is, is a question only time will answer.

'Team GCC's strategy and goals'

World's largest oil producing nation Saudi Arabia along with its GCC allies, also have a strategy very identical to that of Iran. It calls for 'using Islam as a tool for subversion' to serve their 'secular,political and economic objectives'. It has overtime, supported Madrassas all over the Muslim world including Pakistan, specifically built to indoctrinate young Muslims in 'Salafist' interpretation of Islam, . Saudi Arabia actively funded the Mujahideen in the Soviet Afghan war for over 10 years. 

With the influx of the Arab fighters in the Afghan war theater, the Salafist interpretation flourished in Afghanistan-Pakistan border region. Team GCC, currently is actively supporting the Syrian rebels, funding anti Maliki elements in Iraq, supporting the Egyptian Army which ousted a 'democratically elected govt' and has massacred hundreds of pro democracy protesters in the streets. It has gone as far as sending its military into Bahrain to crush the 'anti govt protests' there. 

Saudi Arabia, supported rebels in Libya which fought a civil war against the late Col.Gaddafi. It is also thought to be behind the rather 'swift' change in the Qatari leadership as well as behind the 'dubious' electoral success of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan. Mr Sharif is considered to be a long time 'friend' of Saudi Arabia, and has long been bankrolled by the Saudi Royal family.

Saudi Arabia, is moving towards a non oil based capitalist economy. With its huge oil trade, and Iran under sanctions, it sees a perfect opportunity to 'cease the moment' and claim the lordship of the entire region. Its strategy is to 'encircle Iran by all means'. This is why it has supported the anti Assad rebels in Syria, Anti Maliki elements in Iraqi  Prime minister Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan and some also claim that it will repeat the same strategy in the upcoming Afghan elections, where it would try to bring a 'pro Saudi' govt.

Saudi Arabia with its GCC allies, hopes to make the most of the economic isolation and political stagnation Iran is experiencing right now, due to its Nuclear program. The goal of the Saudis is, to isolate Iran by supporting terrorist groups and religious fundamentalist political parties in the region to create a 'Saudi Friendly' political circle around Iran before the international sanctions are lifted.

It will allow the 'team Saudi Arabia', to become the powerhouse of the region,once Iran is contained, in diplomatic and economic aspects. It is worth noting, that this 'power trip' has 'no religious agenda', however religion is the tool both sides have 'lavishly' used to instigate violence to further their respective political goals. The outcome for 'team GCC' totally depends on how their subversive campaign turns out in Egypt,Syria,Iraq,Bahrain,Pakistan,Afghanistan in the long term. Time should be allowed to decide the fate of this venture.

'Support for the terrorist proxies inside Pakistan'

In order to assess Pakistan's situation in this context accurately, we must take into account the role of the Iranian and Saudi funded, religiously indoctrinated 'terrorist proxies' in Pakistan. Their role became very apparent when Pakistan was fighting for its survival in the soviet Afghan war from 1979-1989. During the Afghan Jihad, both states funded the war. Iran funded the Tajik Mujahideen, while the Saudis funded the ethnic Pashtun Mujahideen groups.

Once the war ended, the terrorist proxies that were funded by both states were diverted to subvert the Pakistani state. Iran by then had been successful in creating, the 'Sipah-e-Muhammad' and 'Tehreek-e-Nifaz-e-Fiqa-e-Jafriya Pakistan' as well as the 'Imamia Student Organization' which was created to provide 'recruits' for the Iranian funded Shia proxies. Throughout the 90's Iran used them with impunity to create violence in Pakistan, in order to get a foothold to exploit in the future. Iranian support for these proxies is still active.

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand kept funding the fundamentalist sunni groups, including Lashker-e-Jhangvi and Sipah-e-Sahaba. These organisations are behind the reign of terror that unfolded in many Pakistani cities. The Saudis also created and funded hundreds of Madrassas, which were used as an incubator for spreading the Salafist ideology in Pakistan.
During the same time, Saudi Arabia recognised the Taliban govt in Kabul and continued support for the fundamentalist political in Pakistan, which is continuing to this day.


'Dynamics of the regional security climate'

Currently, the security climate in the region is extremely volatile, thanks to this battle for hegemony between Iran and GCC. We have a civil war in Syria, extreme post war violence unfolding in Iraq, pro democracy protests in Bahrain, war in Afghanistan, terrorism in Pakistan and the bloody crackdown on pro democracy protesters in Egypt by its military. This situation is being fueled by both teams which are battling for control.This situation has created a very dangerous, hard to predict security climate in the region. Both teams are busy bringing down the existing govts and trying to install theirs. 

In every middle eastern country, the fingerprints of this vicious dogfight are visible. Thousands of people have been killed and millions have been displaced or affected due to this rivalry. With a raging anti Assad civil war in Syria, the use of chemical weapons and a looming NATO strike on Syria has made this explosive situation more hard to comprehend. What becomes of the countries being subverted remains to be seen. Result of the Syrian civil war,Egyptian coup, Bahraini protests and the upcoming Iraqi and Afghan elections will decide the fate of this region.


'Turf battle for power projection in Pakistan'

Ever since the Soviet-Afghan war, a turf battle has been fought on the Pakistani soil, by the both teams against each other. Every one of them have used illegal means to further their agenda in Pakistan. Pakistan is an important country in its own right, its the 2nd largest Muslim nation in the world and has the largest Armed Forces in the Muslim world on top of its proven nuclear deterrent.

Iran and the Arab camp have supported political parties, militant groups, lobbies, madrassas, and journalists to further their say in Pakistani political thinking. They have not spared any effort to subvert the Pakistani state when it suited their agenda. Thousands of Pakistanis have been killed as a result of this turf battle in the past. The irony is that most of the Pakistanis don't even know badly this subversive activity has damaged their way of life.

Apart from supporting the religious fundamentalists, some Arab nations have gone as far as supporting the Marxist mercenary groups in Pakistan's Balochistan province for their own good. United Arab Emirates, and Qatar have been identified as the bank rollers of the banned terrorist outfits, like the BLA,BRA and BLF. For many Pakistanis, it is hard to believe that countries that they consider to be 'friends' are actually busy in fostering terrorism in Pakistan.

The reason behind this problem is that Pakistan has built a huge deep sea port in the Balochistan province with the help of the Chinese at a place called Gwadar. This port is strategically significant, as it is only 150 NMi away from the Strait of Hormuz. This port is being linked to China with a road and rail link, to allow China to trade and import oil from here. Both UAE and Qatar see this port, which potentially will be the largest in Asia in the next 20 years as an economic threat.

This perception has led them both to support the Marxist groups in the Balochistan province. Rebellious tribal leaders have been bankrolled by these two Arab 'friends' of Pakistan. Their wanted leaders have been given shelter and transit from Dubai and Abu Dhabi,where they also receive petrodollars to pay for the 5000 or so mercenaries fighting against their own state. This conundrum has forced Pakistan to seek anti terrorism cooperation with Iran, as a balancing act.

For Pakistan, it is an extremely dangerous situation which can potentially damage ties between Pakistan, UAE and Qatar should these states continue their subversion of the Pakistani state. If Pakistan decides to add this aspect into its strategic calculus it will most definitely change the geostrategic dynamics of the region, which won't benefit the UAE or Qatar.

'Economics as a weapon against Pakistan'

Since Pakistan is dependent on the middle east and Iran for its energy needs, it becomes a viable cause for concern that these nations might want to use that energy card to further their agenda. It was recorded in 2008 when Saudi Arabia had refused Pakistan to provide oil should a war with India break out. Since then Pakistan has been seeking alternative ways to fulfil its energy needs.

Recently, Pakistan discovered vast amounts of Shale oil and gas resources, which are thought to be enough to fulfil Pakistan's energy needs for another 70 years. Pakistan has been actively seeking the Chinese help to install substantial nuclear energy generation capacity through a civil nuclear technology cooperation agreement. In order to safeguard itself from any oil starvation scenario Pakistan has decided to exploit its own Shale potential as soon as possible.

Pakistan plans to acquire a gas pipeline from Iran and Tajikistan to fuel its economy in the future, which will also mean less dependence on oil imports and affordable energy access in times of conflict and peace. Becoming energy independent has become a make or break deal for Pakistan.

'Conclusion | Way forward for Pakistan'

Looking, forward Pakistan needs to stay clear of this Arab-Iranian rivalry for more power and control. Pakistan's best interests lie in becoming a state that has the capability to quell any foreign intervention, be it political or the use of fundamentalist elements. Once Pakistan can control its internal security climate, it should work for its own interests. Pakistan should not engage in any future conflict between the Arabs and the Iranians but should remain 'strictly neutral'.

Pakistan is a state that has the values of friendship and common good at heart. Therefore it is required that Pakistan should always try to mediate between Iran and the Arabs, while living in its own capacity. Any direct conflict between the two regional players will have consequences for Pakistan too, therefore it is desirable that Pakistan maintains, cordial relations with both sides and try to end any possibility of a conflict between the two sides.

It is also the duty of Pakistan, to look after its own national interests and never sacrifice them for any other state. Pakistan should always think for itself first before any other state in the region. Give the opportunity and ability, Pakistan should work for better working relations with Afghanistan, C.Asia and Turkey in order to balance its geopolitical standing. Pakistan has been trying hard to become a permanent member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Should this come true, Pakistan will find itself in a much better position to navigate the rough seas of the Persian gulf geopolitics.

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The Author is a policy critic.

Author can be reached at | greenarrow612@gmail.com

Israel: One of the most isolated nation on earth

Israel | One of the most isolated nations on earth

September 21st 2011.

Background

The Nation known to the world as the state of Israel was created in 1948 after much bloodshed on the occupied Palestinian land. Since then the Palestinian conflict has been a source of trouble in that region and has caused a number of wars and conflicts between Arab nations and Israel resulting in great loss of life and damage to the economies on both sides.  


After decades of bloodshed Israel reached a peace agreement with Egypt in 1979 and few other neighboring Arab countries later on. Ousted dictator of Egypt Hosni Mubarik received continuous support in the form of annual military assistance and economic aid from the United States in return , essentially to keep a lid on the widespread anti Israel sentiment in Egypt for over 3 decades to ensure the security of the Jewish state.


Geopolitical impact of the Arab Spring

Events in the North African Arab states and in some parts of the Middle east have already changed the political landscape of the region , from Tunisia to Egypt , Yemen , Bahrain and Libya. People have stood up to their west supported dictators and in most cases have toppled them but not without great sacrifices.

Egypt being the most important country in North Africa is relevant to Israeli geopolitical scene more than any other country in the region. For over three decades the United States have supported & funded deposed Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarik just to make sure that the anti Zionist trends in Egypt could be oppressed.

But now the times have changed , and the western countries are rushing to cease the initiative & present themselves as the "champions of democracy" as well as present themselves as "leaders" to ensure the so called "democratic transition" takes place. Many Egyptians and Middle easterners believe that its too late and the move is just a gesture "face saving".

Very first priority for the United States is to ensure the security of Israel as the Arab Spring unfolds , be it at the cost of the will of the Egyptian people , yet again. The largest and arguably the most organized political force in Egypt today is the political party called "The Muslim Brotherhood" which was dealt with heavy handily in the Mubarik regime because of their "Islamist agenda" and their efforts to turn Egypt into an Islamic state.

Just recently Israeli soldiers shot dead two Egyptian border guards while chasing a group of Palestinian militants & it sparked a series of protests in Egypt. Egyptians brought down the Israeli embassy wall in Cairo , climbed the building , smashed windows and removed Israeli flag and tore it into pieces. The protesters were angry at the Israeli aggression in the Sinai desert and demanded apology from Israel which as usual was never provided. 

These sort of  protest movements against Israel in Egypt were unheard of in the Mubarik dictatorship. It truly reflects that the "winds of change" are blowing through N.Africa and the Middle east. People are rising up to their aspirations and express themselves and they would elect those leaders in the "New Egypt" who could fulfill their aspirations and draw up an independent foreign policy towards Israel. This scenario poses a great challenge , not only for the Jewish state which until now has found comfort in its assertive posture but also for the Washington and other Western countries which still are assessing the situation and how to position themselves  to serve their interests in the new Middle east.

Collapse of the Israel Turkish relationship

Turkey was the first Muslim country to recognize Israel right after its creation & both countries have enjoyed good relations and great cooperation in the field of science & technology , military hardware , international politics and tourism. Turkey also served as a back channel communication line between Israel and many powerful Muslim countries with no diplomatic relations to Israel like Iran & Pakistan.
 
The ties between two countries have collapsed completely this year in the backdrop of Israel's commando raid on a Turkish flagged flotilla named "Mavi Marmara" bound for besieged Palestinian territory of Gaza in International waters on 31st May 2010 in which 9 Turkish activists were shot dead by Israeli Naval Commandos. In the first week of September 2011 , a UN inquiry into the attack was leaked and its controversial assessment was rejected both by Turkey and Israel , following the report Turkey suspended all diplomatic and military ties with Israel and now plans to take the matter to International Court of Human Rights.

Turkey today in the leadership of its Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan who is hugely popular in the Arab and wider Islamic block is now spreading its political influence not only through economic ties but also reviving it cultural ties with these countries , which some argue is an act of effective diplomacy. Recently when Turkish PM visited Bin Ghazi in Libya and met the leaders of NTC [National Transitional council]  he also joined them in prayers which the leaders of  Britain & France cant do , he also was the first foreign leader to visit Libya which was swiftly and hastily followed by a joint visit by PM Nicolas Sarkozi of France and PM David Cameron of Britain. The visit by two leaders was largely viewed as "half baked" & "with no substance" underneath the talk of democracy.

Turkey also is politically active in countries like Egypt , Iran , Syria and Pakistan , UAE , even Saudi Arabia and it also holds a valuable political leverage over these countries [ strategically important for Israel one way or the other ] , largely because of the popularity of the Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Most of these countries where Turkey holds a firm ground surround Israel geographically so the impact of relationship collapse with Turkey would not be without consequences.

Iran has an active civilian nuclear program which many suspect to also have a military application. Israel believes that Iran is developing nuclear weapons and it could end its domination in the Middle East as world's only "undeclared nuclear power" a view supported by Israel's western allies. On the other hand Iranian leader Mehmood Ahmadi Nijad is defiant , and argues that his country's nuclear program is only for peaceful means and Iran is not developing nuclear weapons. Israel disagrees as it also is fearful of ever growing Iranian ballistic missile program , specially a recently tested medium range ballistic missile Shahab III.        
       
United States has funded an Israeli anti ballistic missile program called the Arrow  and the 'Iron Dome' systems, to provide deterrent against Iranian Missiles. Israel also have warned of a surgical strike on Iranian nuclear facilities if Iranian nuclear program is not stopped , for that matter it also has conducted air exercises to assess the requirements of such an attack , with the help of Greece it also has trained its pilots in electronic counter measures against a possible S-300 air defense threat it may face in Iran. These assertive maneuvers have not been welcomed in Iran at all as one would imagine and they are also beefing up their both offensive and defensive capabilities.

Israel practically cannot attack Iran as all routes that have been selected go through countries which won't allow Israeli Air Force to fly through their air space to carry out a surgical strike mission in Iran. So Israel is not only active on the political front but also very active in using its much successful Zionist lobby groups in the US to convince the Washington to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. 

Israel is doing its best through all lobbyist organizations to prove that Iranian nuclear program is a threat to the US not only to Israel. This effort also includes mass propaganda campaign through print and electronic media ie films.Just to give an idea of the extent Israel is going to is to look at the Hollywood's star director Steven spielberg's new Transformers franchise. In the recently released third segment of the movie "Dark of the moon" Iranian nuclear facilities have been depicted as a "threat to global peace" and thus attacked and destroyed by "alien robots". on the side note Steven Spielberg happens to be a Jew.It remains to be seen how the Israeli Iranian conflict over Iran's nuclear program turns out , but at the moment Iran is defiant and is keeping Israel at the back foot. 


Israel India nexus and Pakistan

Israel and Pakistan never have enjoyed diplomatic relations as Pakistan never recognized Israel as an independent state. Ex Israeli PM  Ben Gurion famously warned the WZM [world Zionist Movement] of the 'dangers posed by Pakistan to Israel'. Pakistan have participated against Israel in all Arab Israeli wars through deploying its combat pilots who inflicted some damages over the Israeli air force.

When Pakistan started its nuclear weapons program , Israel saw it as a threat therefore, lobbied to get it stopped. There were also plans drawn up to 'bomb Pakistan's nuclear facilities' with the help of Pakistan's arch enemy India , but India fearing the consequences never tried to execute these blueprints with Israel against Pakistani nuclear facilities to stop the development of what was dubbed as "Islamic bomb".

Israel in the last decade and half has shifted its focus on India and have successfully established ties with India. Now Israel is the 2nd largest arms supplier to India behind Russia.Israel also sent its army officers to help combat Pakistani Army in the Kargil conflict in year 1999. Israel and Pakistan always have been quiet about their hostilities , conflicts have largely been between the internationally feared Intelligence agencies of both nations the Mossad & the Inter Services Intelligence [ ISI ].

Recent Intel reports coming from Pakistan consistently blame Israeli spy agency Mossad for carrying out joint operations with Indian Research and analysis wing [RAW] inside Pakistan which involve training the terrorist groups in Afghanistan and sending them to Pakistan to carry out suicide bombings. The allegations were refreshed after a well secured Pakistani Naval base was attacked in a daring attempt. Pakistan alleged that the terrorists received training in Afghanistan and were brought to Pakistan to carry out this attack. 

Though Pakistan fell short of blaming Israeli Indian nexus outrightly , it did hit that it suspected their involvement in the incident and many like it which happened before on Pakistani soil. Pakistan until recently held a leadership role in the Muslim world by being one of the founding members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation [OIC] and the only Nuclear power in the Islamic block of countries. Israeli activities with India against Pakistan are closely watched in Pakistan and it also has the potential to open another confrontation front for Israel in the future.

 Israel at the odds with the United States

Israel has been sharply criticized by the United states recently for continuing to build Jewish settlements in the occupied west bank , which are considered illegal under international law and are a major hindrance for the 'peace process'. There are calls for cutting the multi billion dollar US aid to Israel as the US struggles to cut its 14.7 trillion dollar debt. Also there is a growing anti Israel movement being run by the surviving victims of USS Liberty which was attacked and heavily damaged by Israeli air force and Navy on June 8, 1967 , leaving 34 crewmen killed,171 crewmen wounded. Not to forget the ever growing American 'libertarian movement' , actively propagates the idea of 'non intervention' , which includes cutting the International Aid, including to the state of Israel.

US also is unhappy about Israel's technology transfer to China , specially the US funded jet fighter project IAI Lavi which was sold to China and was used to develop advance J-10A/B aircrafts  Israel also transferred Nuclear technology to China and South Africa which didn't go down well in Washington. Israel now is the 2nd biggest supplier of arms to China behind Russia which has put it on a diplomatic collision course with the US.


 Israel looking towards Cyprus and Greece

Considering the above situation it is not hard to understand that Israel has lost all of its friends in the region and is becoming unpopular by the day in the rest of the world. Now Israel has shifted its policy and is looking towards Cyprus and Greece for an alliance. Both countries are insignificant in terms of international politics , and Greece is almost bankrupt. One reason of the effort to make Israeli ties with Cyprus closer is to somehow keep Turkey in check which is in a conflict situation in this region not only on territorial disputes but also on gas resources. Israel is taking its chances to use proxies like Cyprus , Greece and Kurdish terrorist organization PKK to blackmail Turkey and strike a balance of influence in the region , that they could deal with Turkey on the equal footing.

 Conclusion

By understanding the above situation it is not hard to figure out that Israel is one of the most isolated nation on earth today. If the situation maintains , Israel can soon find itself in a very difficult position not only politically but most importantly in the economic theater as well. It relies on its allies for trade , tourism , arms and many more aspects of economics which could turn against Israel in the immediate future.  

Times have gone past when Israel and its allies in the west could keep the middle eastern dictators in power in order to keep the people of those countries brutally suppressed both physically & economically. Now when the so called Arab spring becomes an Arab summer , Israel will find itself on a crossroads if it doesn't already , it would have to drop its assertive , uncompromising attitude as well as drop its so called "Mad Dog" style of diplomacy , designed by IDF General Moshe Dayan.

Israel must realize that times have changed and it must change too , it would have to sincerely want peace and would have to work to achieve it.  Israel as a "police state" won't be long lasting , if it has to last , it would have to co-exist with its Arab neighbors through a peaceful existence policy on both sides. If Israel stops being assertive and becomes more friendly and civilized as well as easy to deal with , it may find a few friends which it so badly needs.

Regards.


Strategic Watchman

The author can be reached at | strategicwatchman@hotmail.com